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Thoughts, Questions on a Revolution

I went to bed last night after blogging and responding to a few emails on my computer, woke up this morning and couldn’t get the damned thing to turn on. It’s a 15″ Mac Book Pro that I’ve had for over two and a half years, I suppose I knew it was going to go pretty soon, but the timing is just terrible. I’m currently writing this on a friend’s computer, and he doesn’t have photo editing applications, so I’m up a creek right now for posting photos. Sorry, I’d really like to see my photos (on a computer screen), I know I made some nice frames today, but it looks like it will have to wait until I get back to the states (currently slated for Tuesday, Feb 8)  I’ll be sure to get them up once I get back.

In the mean time, Joey Baker, a good friend who also built 90% of this website, sent me an email with a few questions. I’ll answer those and also make a few observations I’ve noticed…

When you get the time, can you explain why it appears that huge sections of the square are un-populated?

The population of Tahrir Square fluctuates throughout the day, and depends on which area of the square you’re in. Without any disrespect to the Egyptian people (and the very real revolution they are attempting to throw), the square is slowly starting to feel more and more like a festival – especially now that the ‘pro-mubarak’ protestors have all but dispersed.  There is an emerging tourism economy in the square – flags, face masks painted the color of the Egyptian flag, blankets, baked sweet potatoes, cigarettes, bottled water, coke, candy bars – all of these are now available for sale through table shops that are popping up all over. Each day brings more children and families, I swear I’ve seen couples on dates, the mood is becoming lighter and lighter (though I’m sure this will all change when the Army decides it’s time to move in – which is what I predict will eventually happen).

Generally, the central area of Tahrir Square – the giant round-about seen from rooftop shots – is the most populated area. Make-shift tents have been set up in the middle of the round-about and is where many people sleep. Throughout the day, a crowd of people circles this round-about. As you get near the outskirts of the square, especially to the north, next to the museum, fewer people gather. These are currently considered the ‘front lines,’ and it is where most of the clashes have taken place.  Usually the only people here are the media, and the people most ready and willing to fight for their cause. However, now that there are no real pro-Mubarak people outside this “front line,” it’s kind of a no-man’s land of battles from a few days ago.

Why is it that people are choosing to sleep here?

Egyptians taking over Tahrir Square is the equivalent New Yorkers storming and taking over Time Square, or Washingtonians(?) taking over the National Lawn. Now that they have it, they don’t want to give it back. While a lot of people are sleeping here, there are many more people who are day-visitors (including most of the media) – again, it starts to give it a festival  feel. It should be noted that things weren’t so militaristic until the thugs started attacking mid-week. That’s when the barricades were set up and when the rioters really began to get serious about ‘holding the Square.’

Are people still working or has the city shut down?

This is a tough question for me to answer realistically – the scene here has become almost similar to the ‘bubbles’ I’ve witnessed at the Olympics, where the media hotels, events and locations are all directly near each other. Most of the media hotels are less than one kilometer from Tahrir Square. From what I can tell, most of us haven’t been able to get outside the city much. We just heard a report that a writer for The Times of London tried to venture out into some of Cairo’s neighborhoods to write a story, and was beaten so badly he had to be hospitalized. I originally had assignments to go to the Suez canal, and possibly to Alexandria, but both assignments were squashed when locals, fixers, the hotel concierge and taxi cab drivers all strongly suggested against it for my own safety. All that said, I will leave here only having seen a maybe a 15 block radius of Cairo.

(Back to the original question) In the 15 block radius I’ve seen, all stores have been closed. Today was the first day that I saw small shops open in the square, and it was only three shops. Two sold food, one sold trinkets. This wasn’t the case when I arrived, and may not be the case outside my little bubble. When I walked through the streets on Wednesday, many shops were open.

If they’re working, how are the protesters making a living?

This is a great question, and we’re all wondering when the economic noose around this revolution is going to get too tight. Just today, the taxi driver we had said he had been in Tahrir for the last ten days, but finally had to stop protesting to go back to work. The economy may well be the lynch-pin in this revolution.

That said, the government tried to have banks and government offices open again today – in an effort the try to get people back to work. Yet the square was more filled with people today than anytime I’ve seen it before. To me, the economy is one of the most interesting factors in this situation.

What’s the general atmosphere there? Are most people involved in the protests?

The general atmosphere is incredibly hard to gauge, because I don’t speak Arabic. When I’m inside the Square, I feel pretty safe – these are the people who want the western media to continue to cover the story. It’s become quite apparent that “any press is good press” for this revolution. As long as the western media shows it, it puts pressure on Mubarak. People inside Tahrir are constantly thanking me, shaking hands, making conversation.

When I’m outside the square, I have no idea how scared i should or shouldn’t be, but I usually air on the side of pretty nervous. A good friend had a taxi cab driver tell him, “if I saw you walking on the street, I would probably kick your ass [for being foreign and being in Cairo right now].” I was in a cab last night, and the driver got so angry, (either at my friend and I for asking him to take us to our hotel, or because he was stopped at numerous check points -we never found out why), that he pulled a box cutter out of his glove compartment, started beating his steering wheel screaming, and made repeated slashing motions to his neck. I was sitting in the front seat and was pretty terrified. To be clear, we’re not sure if he was angry at the neighborhood check points, and was making those motions because he was nervous he would be killed on his way back, or if he was making those motions at us because he was angry with us. If it was at us, I’m glad our hotel wasn’t farther away.

Are most people involved with the protests? We had a lengthy debate over this topic at dinner last night. Using rough numbers, Egypt has a population of 85 million. Cairo, 16 million. If every square foot of Tahrir square is filled (with one body/square foot) only approximately 250,000 would be there. But, how many people does each protester represent? How many people support this revolution, but won’t stick their necks out, or live too far away, or have to go to work, or watch the kids? A very interesting question. What percentage of Egyptians actually support this revolt. I had a friend leave Cairo today because he thought the western media had played such a biased role in all of this, he didn’t want any part of it.

Are most carrying on as normal?

On Friday, “The Day of Departure,” the downtown area was at a near standstill – the air was very tense. Saturday and Sunday have seen an increase (on both days) in traffic, noise, store openings, etc. I think many people in Cairo would like to see life return to some kind of normalcy.

Have people left the cities?

I don’t know enough to answer this question. I have heard rumors (and only rumors) that people from outside Cairo came in to help protest – but those might have been the people reportedly bussed in with government money and told to beat up the media and protesters.

Do most people feel that this is just a matter of time? Do they feel like they will eventually need to fight?

Again, I just don’t know. In my opinion, the Army is going to have to clear these people out of the square sooner or later. The Egyptian economy is being crippled. When the army moves in (I still predict that it will start with slow rolling tanks, water cannons and tear gas – then again, what the hell do I know), it could get very, very ugly. I’ve spoken to many people who have made it very clear they are ready to die in Tahrir for democracy. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Perhaps most importantly… who’s leading all this? I keep seeing the legs kicking, but where’s the head of this animal?

I think this is the root of all the aforementioned issues. Ultimately, these people know what they want (Mubarak gone, immediately) but have no leader or course of action to get them there. To use your metaphor, this is essentially a headless animal.

This entire situation is rapidly turning into a catch-22. A leader can’t just walk away – a power vacuum is created, and whoever takes over will (probably) do so with autocratic power. The Egyptian people would end up with another dictator.  On the other hand, if Mubarak stays until September, it gives him plenty of time to rig an election and systematically hunt down and silence the loudest protesters. I know that sounds a bit ridiculous, but I’ve spoken to a lot of reporters who are far more knowledgeable than I am in this situation, and that is what they predict will happen if he stays through September.

A clear line of democratic action must be set up. I find it very interesting that the head of the UN, Ban Ki-Moon, is calling for immediate elections. However, this is ridiculously hard to do – an election is a massive, coordinated process that takes months, at least. Who are the candidates? What do they believe? Those candidates must find funding, choose platforms, have debates…needless to say, Egypt is in for a tough time.

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I’m very disappointed to have to leave Cairo. I arrived at this story late, and will now be leaving early – and I’m not usually one to half-ass something. Unfortunately, that’s just the way it has gone this time around: I haven’t been able to find as many assignments as I would have liked, and with the broken computer, I’ve become nearly useless. It’s currently Sunday night – I have one last assignment tomorrow, and then I head out to the airport Monday evening for a 3AM flight on Tuesday. I’ve written this post on my friend’s computer, no guarantees I’ll be able to blog again before I go. Thanks so much for reading, caring, looking at my photos, commenting, and all the love.

Many blessings, AB